New research to be presented at the European Congress on Obesity (ECO 2025) in Malaga, Spain, reveals that children with overweight or obesity trajectories are at an increased risk of developing chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) in adulthood. The study, led by Frida Richter and Professor Jennifer Lyn Baker of The Center for Clinical Research and Prevention at Copenhagen University Hospital, investigates the long-term impact of childhood body mass index (BMI) on lung health.
While smoking has long been recognized as the primary risk factor for COPD, emerging research has begun to explore other potential environmental and early-life factors, such as childhood obesity. Previous studies have examined the connection between excess body fat and conditions like asthma and impaired lung function, but the relationship between childhood obesity and COPD remained unclear. This study aimed to fill that gap by analyzing how BMI trajectories during childhood might influence the risk of COPD later in life.
The research team analyzed data from 276,747 Danish children, including 137,493 girls, born between 1930 and 1982. The children, who had between 2 and 12 weight and height measurements taken between ages 6 and 15, were tracked over a period from 1977 to 2022. The data was sourced from the Copenhagen School Health Records Register, which provided a comprehensive picture of BMI patterns during childhood.
Using statistical models, the researchers identified five distinct childhood BMI trajectories: below-average, average, above-average, overweight, and obesity. The participants were then followed into adulthood, with a focus on COPD diagnoses from age 40 onward. Hazard ratios (HR) were calculated separately for men and women to assess the likelihood of developing COPD based on childhood BMI trajectory.
The study found that a significant number of individuals were diagnosed with COPD during the follow-up period: 18,227 women and 15,789 men. Among women, those who had an above-average childhood BMI had a 10% higher risk of developing COPD compared to those with an average BMI trajectory. Women with an overweight trajectory faced a 26% higher risk, while those with an obesity trajectory had a 65% higher risk. In men, the risks were similarly elevated, with those who had an above-average childhood BMI facing a 7% higher risk of COPD, and those with an overweight and obesity trajectory experiencing a 16% and 40% higher risk, respectively.
Interestingly, women with a below-average childhood BMI trajectory exhibited a 9% lower risk of COPD compared to those with an average BMI trajectory.
The authors concluded that childhood obesity and overweight may serve as independent risk factors for the development of COPD later in life. “Our results suggest that an above-average BMI trajectory in childhood is associated with an increased risk of COPD in adulthood,” the authors stated. “Overweight during early life could be an important indicator of future lung health.”
The researchers also acknowledged that factors such as parental smoking and socioeconomic status may have influenced the results, though the consistency of the findings across different birth cohorts suggests that childhood BMI is a robust predictor of COPD risk. Despite changes in medical, cultural, and socioeconomic factors over the study period, the association between childhood obesity and COPD risk remained strong, pointing to the importance of addressing overweight and obesity in childhood as a key public health issue.
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